Mass Deportation & The Labor Market: Trump's Erroneous Promise

By: Morgan Dreher

edited by: olivia paik and Sophia Khobdeh

President Donald Trump plans to “‘carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.’” [1] What does this mean for Americans? With a plethora of immigration and trade policies, Trump promised to improve the economy for American citizens. Since taking office, he has already issued a series of executive orders and arrested thousands of unauthorized immigrants. [2] But, this objective may be based on a gross misrepresentation of how undocumented immigration affects our labor market. 

A few assumptions underlie the philosophy that mass deportation will improve the labor market and create jobs for American citizens. First, it presupposes that immigrant and citizen labor are direct substitutes – meaning job openings from deportations will readily be filled by unemployed American citizens at no extra cost to employers. Additionally, the promise of increased job availability assumes that our economy has a fixed number of jobs, and all jobs vacated by deported immigrants will be preserved for American-born workers. However, both of these premises are drastic oversimplifications of our country’s economy. 

Beginning with the question of substitutability, trends show that undocumented immigrants tend to work different jobs than American citizens. Unauthorized immigrants are more likely to accept lower paying and more dangerous jobs, which many Americans are unwilling to perform. [3] In fact, H-2A jobs, which provide temporary visas to agricultural workers, rarely see any applications from U.S. born workers. From 2014 to 2016, the U.S. Department of Labor found that “87 percent of H-2A employers requesting U.S. workers received none.” [4] In addition to agriculture, undocumented immigrants are essential to many other key industries. A report from the Carsey School of Public Policy found that unauthorized immigrants make up “22 percent of all farmworkers, 15 percent of construction workers, and 8 percent of manufacturing workers.” [5] Many of these fields already face a labor shortage, and a further decrease in supply from deportations will raise prices for consumers. [6] Therefore, deportations will fuel inflation, undermining one of Trump’s central campaign promises to lower prices. Another issue with the substitutability assumption is that undocumented immigrants have lower reservation wages than American citizens. [7] Employers cannot simply replace undocumented immigrants’ labor with citizen labor, as attracting citizen workers requires higher pay. This increases costs for firms, driving consumer prices up further. But, firms will not always opt to fill the vacancies created by deportation. 

This leads to the second presupposition: a fixed number of jobs. While deportations will certainly decrease competition in the labor market, evidence does not support a net job creation effect. Since the U.S. is already facing labor shortages in the low-wage sector, deportation will not effectively create job openings in the positions Americans are vying for. As hiring becomes more expensive, firms will opt to hire fewer workers to mitigate their costs. They will likely invest in more capital or technology, which serves as a closer substitute for immigrant labor than American born workers. [8] The remaining question is whether the effects of decreased competition will outweigh the effects of job elimination. According to a study by scholar Christoph Albert, undocumented immigrants have a 7% higher job finding rate but earn 8% less, meaning their net effect is job creation. [9] Therefore, the absence of immigrants due to deportation will decrease job availability more than it will benefit domestic workers through reduced competition. 

Deportation will also spur job loss across income levels, as immigrants currently prop up local markets with consumption and business ventures. According to the American Immigration Council, one million undocumented immigrants are entrepreneurs. [10] Plus, immigrant labor is complementary to higher-paying jobs, meaning immigrants improve productivity and thus employment for American workers in intermediate and high level positions. [11] These jobs rely on the goods and services provided by low-skilled labor, often performed by unauthorized immigrants, and will see a decrease in surplus and employment in response to mass deportation. Robert Lynch and Michael Ettlinger from the Carsey School predict that “employment losses for future mass deportation have been estimated to be as high as 3.6 percent.” [12] On the whole, this displays the possible economic downturn linked to Trump’s promised deportations. 

Economists assess the plausibility of these concerns by analyzing other major deportations in America’s history. Many studies examine the deportations under the Secure Communities program from 2008 to 2014, which “increased information sharing between local law enforcement agencies and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.” [13] One report found that “when 500,000 undocumented immigrant workers were forced out of the country, 44,000 fewer jobs were held by U.S.-born workers.” [14] Similarly, the end of the Bracero Program in the 1960s–which temporarily admitted Mexicans to America for agricultural work–did not increase employment or wages for American workers. [15] Thus, history proves that mass deportations will not have the positive labor market effects that Trump’s administration promises.

In addition to labor market consequences, mass deportations create other costs for American citizens. A study by the American Immigration Council estimates that between arrests, detainments, legal proceedings, and removals, a one-time mass deportation targeting approximately 13 million undocumented immigrants will cost at least $315 billion. [16] The same research reports that a longer-term operation could cost around “$967.9 billion over the course of more than a decade.” [17] These explicit costs will be accompanied by a series of implicit ones, such as a potential decrease in GDP by 4.2-6.8%. [18] In aggregate, undocumented immigrants also pay more taxes than the welfare they receive, with more than a third of their payroll taxes going towards programs they cannot benefit from. [19] The economic costs of deportation include direct expenditures on deportation processes and foregone GDP and tax revenue – a bill which American taxpayers will foot.

Overall, Trump’s promises of job creation are flawed due to a reliance on two oversimplifications of the economy. Analysis of economic theory and deportations throughout history suggest that mass deportation will have the reverse effect on the economy by decreasing employment and raising prices. Plus, the expenses incurred will inevitably increase taxes, further hurting American consumers. So, as the executive orders roll in and promises of job creation continue, remember that mass deportation leaves no American unscathed.

Notes:

1. Ali Blanco, “The US Has Deported Immigrants En Masse Before. Here’s What Happened,” Politico, 2024. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/29/mass-deportation-immigration-history-00195729.

2. Mica Rosenberg and Perla Trevizo, “Four Years in a Day,” ProPublica, 2025. https://www.propublica.org/article/donald-trump-immigration-executive-orders

3. Chloe East, “The labor market impact of deportations,” Brookings Institution, 2024. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-labor-market-impact-of-deportations/

4. David J. Bier, “H‑2A Visas for Agriculture: The Complex Process for Farmers to Hire Agricultural Guest Workers,” Cato Institute, 2020. https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/h-2a-visas-agriculture-complex-process-farmers-hire

5. Robert Lynch and Michael Ettlinger, “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation,” University of New Hampshire, 2024. https://carsey.unh.edu/sites/default/files/media/2025-01/literature-review-economic-impact-mass-deportation.pdf

6. Martin Heinrich, “Mass Deportations Would Deliver a Catastrophic Blow to the U.S. Economy,” Joint Economic Committee, 2024. https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2024/12/mass-deportations-would-deliver-a-catastrophic-blow-to-the-u-s-economy#:~:text=Evidence%20also%20shows%20that%20deportations,least%20educated%20and%20most%20vulnerable

7. Christoph Albert, “The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: Job Creation versus Job Competition,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13 (1): 35-78, 2021. 10.1257/mac.20190042

8. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy,” American Immigration Council, 2024.  https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation

9. Albert, “The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: Job Creation versus Job Competition.”

10. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.”

11. Lynch and Ettlinger, “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation.”

12. Lynch and Ettlinger, “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation.”

13. East, “The labor market impact of deportations.”

14. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.”

15. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.”

16. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.”

17. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.”

18. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.”

19. Akash Pillai, Drishti Pillai, and Samantha Artiga, “Potential Impacts of Mass Detention and Deportation Efforts on the Health and Well-Being of Immigrant Families,” Kaiser Family Foundation, 2025.  https://www.kff.org/racial-equity-and-health-policy/issue-brief/potential-impacts-of-mass-detention-and-deportation-efforts-on-the-health-and-well-being-of-immigrant-families/

Bibliography:

Albert, Christoph. 2021. “The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: Job Creation versus Job Competition.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13 (1): 35-78. 10.1257/mac.20190042.

Bier, David J. 2020. “H‑2A Visas for Agriculture: The Complex Process for Farmers to Hire Agricultural Guest Workers.” Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/h-2a-visas-agriculture-complex-process-farmers-hire.

Blanco, Ali. 2024. “The US Has Deported Immigrants En Masse Before. Here’s What Happened.” Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/29/mass-deportation-immigration-history-00195729.

East, Chloe. 2024. “The labor market impact of deportations.” Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-labor-market-impact-of-deportations/.

Heinrich, Martin. 2024. “Mass Deportations Would Deliver a Catastrophic Blow to the U.S. Economy.” Joint Economic Committee. https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2024/12/mass-deportations-would-deliver-a-catastrophic-blow-to-the-u-s-economy#:~:text=Evidence%20also%20shows%20that%20deportations,least%20educated%20and%20most%20vulnerable.

Lynch, Robert, and Michael Ettlinger. 2024. “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation.” University of New Hampshire. https://carsey.unh.edu/sites/default/files/media/2025-01/literature-review-economic-impact-mass-deportation.pdf.

“Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.” 2024. American Immigration Council. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation.

Pillai, Akash, Drishti Pillai, and Samantha Artiga. 2025. “Potential Impacts of Mass Detention and Deportation Efforts on the Health and Well-Being of Immigrant Families.” Kaiser Family Foundation. https://www.kff.org/racial-equity-and-health-policy/issue-brief/potential-impacts-of-mass-detention-and-deportation-efforts-on-the-health-and-well-being-of-immigrant-families/.

Rosenberg, Mica, and Perla Trevizo. 2025. “Four Years in a Day.” ProPublica. https://www.propublica.org/article/donald-trump-immigration-executive-orders.